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M6 RISK MODEL FOR THE CHARACTERISATION OF PREGNANCIES OF UNKNOWN LOCATION Based on:
Van Calster B*, Bobdiwala S*, Guha S, Van Hoorde K, Al-Memar M, Harvey R, Farren J, Kirk E, Condous G, Sur S, Stalder C, Timmerman D, Bourne T. (* Joint first authors)
Managing pregnancy of unknown location based on initial serum progesterone and serial serum hCG: development and validation of a two-step triage protocol. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology , in press.
This model computes the probability that the PUL is a failed PUL, an intra-uterine pregnancy or an ectopic pregnancy
Please read the disclaimer below!
ENTER PATIENT DATA IN THE BLUE CELLS
Note: for PUL terms and definitions check the paper by Barnhart and colleagues (Fertility & Sterility, 2011;95:857-866).
Data complete!
PREDICTED PROBABILITIES AND CLASSIFICATION Risk predictions
Seepatientriskpiechart 
Predictors
ENTER VALUES
Initial serum hCG (IU/L)
48 hour serum hCG (IU/L)
Did the patient receive progesterone treatment? Initialserumprogesterone(nmol/l) -optional
345 231 No 34
Risk of ectopic pregnancy
Risk of failed PUL
Chance of intrauterine pregnancy
31,8% 61,9% 6,4%
INTERPRETATION
Patient in high risk group for ectopic pregnancy
Risk of ectopic pregnancy
Risk of failed PUL
Chance of intrauterine pregnancy
When a pregnancy is visualized: measurements
Measurements for dating of pregnancy
Embryo: crown‐rump length (CRL) = 1 measurement
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PRECONGRESS COURSE 05 I BARCELONA, SPAIN – 1 JULY 2018 99